June 2, 2020
power creep – noun : (collectible games, computer games, role-playing games) The situation where updates to a game introduce more powerful units or abilities, leaving the older ones underpowered
Holy Flying Spaghetti Monster, has Magic become a mountainous mess recently. Yes, yes, of course it’s “been a mess” for the bulk of its existence. The last few weeks though… oof-nicity abounds.
As a casual/middling player, it’s always been easy to tune out, discount, or ignore the vitriol that Magic players are famous for spewing. But it’s just been SO inescapable for anyone who is plugged into the game and its community. I contemplated riffing through the various controversies and giving my take, but the many and varied Magic channels are overflowing with grousing (which, sadly, is mostly what I’d be doing.) Why add to that?
Instead, I’m going to look at if (how?) Magic can course-correct. Can they stick the Erhnam Djinn back in the Ventifact Bottle?
What follows are my thoughts on several notable Magic controversies, but rather than just adding my scream to the hurricane of rage (because, really, I can’t spin any of this positively) I’m going to give my middling Magic perspective on how the future looks (hint: I’m not wearing shades.)
Standard Power Creep
Truthfully…this one has me befuddled. Magic has, of course, undulated the power level of sets and environments for the entirety of its history. The powerful Urza block begat the woeful Mercadian Masques, the largely broken Mirrodin block foisted upon us the bizarre and feeble Kamigawa, and (going the other direction) the moderate Amonkhet and Ixalan blocks launched us into the WAR/ELD/THB/Companion nonsense we’re currently saddled with.
Could a solution be easier? Just pull back! Reign in the Clydesdales – trade them in for Shetland ponies. And I do think this is coming. It almost has to be. What concerns me is the timing.
Wizards started juicing sets with WAR (released in May of 2019), and told us about their new doping regimen in June of that year. Though WAR‘s power level raised some eyebrows, few were grousing about power creep. I doubt many were even concerned about it based solely on WAR. Established players remembered (and largely not fondly, mind you) the Amonkhet and Ixalan blocks, neither of which could be mistaken for all-time Standard juggernauts.
In mid-2019 I don’t think Wizards had a real accurate picture of what Magic would play like in mid-2020, and surely they weren’t anticipating the steady howls of displeasure over power creep that have become staples of online Magic content for months.
Considering how long in advance Wizards works, it’s quite likely that the sets staring at us from the near future were completed long before R&D may have taken their foot off the accelerator (assuming they’ve done that at all.) Core 2020 was a significant upgrade over the mediocre Core 2019, and by all accounts, people really enjoyed the stronger suite of cards printed in Core 2020. I can’t fathom Wizards ignoring the success of Core 2020 and returning to something more akin to Core 2019.
And then there’s this fall’s Zendikar Rising. I started my 8-year Magic hiatus just as the original Zendikar was released, so I have no personal experience with the set. People gush excessively about the set’s overall quality, though. Wizards’ return to the plane in the fall of 2015 for Battle for Zendikar was, from what I’ve gleaned, exceptionally disappointing. Fans of the original Zendikar seemed particularly aggrieved. Redemption was assuredly foremost in the minds of Wizards R&D as they designed the upcoming re-return. And Wizards can’t possibly redeem a previous failure through flavor and art alone. The cards will have to be good, and they’ll have to hold up with what’s already in Standard. WAR may be rotating out of Standard this fall, but ELD, THB, (and to a lesser extent IKO) have set a baseline that I think Zendikar will comfortably hurdle. Players will not want a low-powered set based in Zendikar, and I’m certain Wizards will not let that happen.
What happens after that? I think we’ll see a step back…eventually. Will that be the first set release of 2021? Or are we staring down another year (or more!) of pushed releases before sets designed during the current bout of power creep outrage finally see play?
And one final note: whatever set finally eases up on the power, I sure hope it’s a flavor extravaganza. History shows that people don’t particularly like (or purchase) lower-powered sets. Magic may just need to take a sales hit or two in the name of re-balancing Standard. Can you imagine what will become of Magic if they refuse to do that?
Commander Power Creep
Yes, I’m sounding off on a problem in a format I don’t (yet) play. Heckle me as necessary.
Anxiety over the upcoming Commander Legends draft set due at the end of the year is already beginning to show. Players are genuinely worried about the price point (more on this in a moment) and what the set will do to a format that looks to be under some strain from power creep and homogeneity. And I feel far, far less hopeful about this one.
For several years, and throughout Magic’s product lines, Wizards has been introducing powerful commanders and extremely pushed and/or “stricly better” cards meant for Commander. A decent number of players have been lamenting both the lack of lower-powered “niche” commanders and the steady introduction of seemingly “auto-include” cards to the format.
Commander’s premier product line, the Commander precons, will continue to be the “face” of the format from Wizards’ perspective. How do you sell EDH precons? Include powerful cards, particularly face commanders. Maybe I’m not giving the Commander crowd sufficient credit, but people largely disliked C18‘s lower-powered decks, and those are still readily available to purchase for below the usual $40 price tag. I can’t see Wizards downgrading upcoming face commanders or new card designs for what many players already feel are overall lackluster deck offerings (due to their lack of valuable reprints and sketchy mana bases in current Commander precons.)
Do weaker precons, and/or weaker offerings in the upcoming Commander Legends, really seem plausible? Many players SAY they want fewer top-end, value-heavy commanders or “must play” cards, but will people buy Commander precons that lack one or both of those things? There are people throughout all strata of EDH who want to play with powerful Commanders and powerful cards, even if they aren’t full-blown cEDH players. People like to play with powerful cards, regardless of format or overall personal competitiveness.
I predict Commander’s headlong sprint upwards continues for the foreseeable future. Perhaps the number of EDH inclusions in sets outside of the Commander precons will be be toned down a tad, but even that seems improbable – Standard players like their powerful legends too.
Double Masters and Pricing in General
Double Masters is overpriced. It will sell anyway. Absolutely no one doubts this. Everyone priced out hates this. Buyers will keep quiet (on the internet, anyway.)
And players feel like there’s nothing they can do about the situation…except rage.
Have you seen anyone proclaiming excitement about buying a box? I haven’t. And yet there are many, many players who obviously are. Every Double Masters $300 pre-order booster box Amazon initially offered was gone within hours.
On the Double Masters announcement stream the set was positioned as a way to get needed reprints into players’ hands. Then, after the initial firestorm over the $300 a box, $16 a booster price point, the beloved Mark Rosewater cast it as a “premium” product not meant for everybody.
My collection stretches back far enough that many desired reprints are either already in my binders, or are cards whose ownership I long ago dismissed as comical due to their price tag. But I still think it’s absurd that a 100% reprint set likely bursting with cards millions of players would like to own has been slapped with an outrageous “for whales only” price tag. It’ll sell out, Wizards will make its money, but the optics on this are abysmal.
And that, I think, is what’s most likely to be fixed next time around. Future “premium” reprint sets may not be labeled as “Masters” sets, since that word has certain connotations for players. And the initial messaging about the set will likely make it clearer that they are “whale-centric”, as opposed to “general purpose.”
Making reprint sets “premium” products with “premium” prices, in a game with thousands of cards many players are priced out of, is abominable. And I wish people wouldn’t support it. But scads of them will. Hefty profit will be made.
That said…
It’s curious that players rage about Wizards chasing short-term profits at the expense of a long-term outlook. Double Masters appears to do both. Obviously there is significant short-term profit to be made here, but the very reason Wizards doesn’t print huge swaths of expensive cards in $4 boosters is to protect Magic’s future profitability. If every desirable card was readily available for a reasonable cost, do you really think players would continue to buy boxes and boxes of product? Of course not. So what would Wizards then be able to sell, exactly? I don’t think selling new sets to Standard players will ever satiate the corporate overlords.
It’s possible that Wizards will have “gotten the message” (outrage) and will find additional different, truly “premium” products to push in the future. A draftable set of reprints is an awful candidate for that role. Honestly, I don’t know how much fury the company is comfortable ignoring in the hunt for currency. Players have raged about lesser sins oodles of times before, so this could prove to be just another episode of brushing off the part-time pitchforks.
Beyond Double Masters, the dissolution of MSRP grows more frustrating with each passing product. Will Commander Legends be priced similarly, in the $10-15 range for a pack with 20 instead of 15 cards? Will there ever be another reprint set NOT priced 2-4 times the cost of a Standard booster pack?
And the underlying question I (and doubtless many others) have: if Wizards refuses to acknowledge the prices of cards on the secondary market, why is it acceptable to up-charge – sometimes spectacularly – Secret Lairs or sets that contain cards that are expensive on the secondary market? Mark Rosewater essentially admitted that “desirable” cards will come with a “premium” price point. Why? They don’t cost more to produce or market or sell.
Collector Boosters, which run $15-25 each, are considered by most players to be an acceptable way of monetizing desirability. Those same cards are (mostly) available in draft boosters, with “standard” (not the format) art. Secret Lair releases, though certainly a stronger source of frustration and anger within the Magic community, are similarly seen as tolerable ways for Wizards to make bank off of fancy cards.
Obviously a draftable reprint set with a giant markup is a step (nay, a triple jump) too far for many (me included.) I’m admittedly shocked at the sheer volume of bile players are spitting, considering the exorbitant prices of some previous Masters sets, but I’ve always been baffled by so many people’s willingness to pay the going rate for such releases. I thought it was a mistake to charge that much, and pay that much, then.
Wizards learned they could charge premium prices in the past, and I suspect they were a little blindsided by just HOW upset people are about Double Masters. I think part of the anger is due to just how brazenly the set is priced, and part of it is simply fatigue with the now-expected “no MSRP”/”product isn’t for you” mantras.
Wizards isn’t going to go back to setting MSRP on their products, but I do suspect they’ll get more creative about how they try to pry cash from whales. Secret Lairs are going to continue to flourish. Collector Boosters – a product many thought would exist for a few sets before being retired for a different stunt – look here to stay, based on the availability and cost of IKO Collector packs. My guess is that, if Wizards (wisely) decides to avoid another Double Master PR debacle, they’ll introduce something new (but possibly ongoing) in 2021 aimed squarely at whales.
I had some additional material written about Companions and the state of Standard, but Monday’s Banned and Restricted Announcement rendered that material moot. So…next time: something fluffier – my new favorite deck!
Casual Magicking 